The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
David McDonough
September 23, 2019

There have been countless news stories about how Millennials are different than previous generations, including their relationship with debt. The principles on debt – the difference between good and bad debt and how to make sure your money works for you – haven’t changed. What has changed are the ways to prepare for retirement and the mountains of student debt that many millennials are struggling under. This large debt slows down their ability to build toward their financial independence, which is a road that many have to pave on their own.

First off, preparing for financial independence has changed. One’s golden years are no longer secured by a pension. More and more people are accepting that preparing for retirement rests solely on their shoulders. The look of retirement has changed as well, with some expecting to continue working because they want to, not because they need to, as well as some embracing the FIRE movement and planning to retire well before 65. For many, the financial landscape that people are planning for has changed.

One of the things that hasn’t changed is what we have historically considered “bad debt”. Credit card debt, high car payments and other depreciating assets, can be harmful to your bottom line. These expenses don’t increase your net worth and often simply distract you from your long-term goals of financial independence. It’s a good idea to keep expenses in this category to a minimum.

Good debt, on the other hand, is money you borrow to ultimately increase your wealth. Historically, student loans for higher education and real estate have fallen under this category as they were seen to be investments that would bring sizable returns in the future. As with any investment, though, you need to critically examine your likely return to make the right decisions. If you are looking at taking student loans for higher education, the goal is for that education to secure a position that will provide you a greater salary. However, if you take out a $100,000 loan to enter a profession that generally generates an annual $40,000 salary, which doesn’t seem to be the best return on your investment. This is the lesson Millennials are laboring under. With $1.5 trillion in outstanding student loan debt[i], Millennials are struggling to make ends meet, let alone build for the future.

Like a series of dominoes, consequences of financial decisions can be far-reaching. Yes, real estate can be a building block to your financial freedom. Yet, many Millennials are delaying buying a home due to their significant outstanding student loan debt[ii]. Additionally, if you’re looking to buy a house that requires a mortgage that leaves you with little funds to contribute to savings or other investments, it may no longer be a good debt option.

In the end, everyone should be looking for ways to invest in their future. You need to be mindful about your money and how it’s working for you. While it’s good to make sure that you’re not throwing your money away, you also want to make sure that your debt is worth the expected rate of return. Everyone has multiple goals, both short-term and long-term. If you plan the right way, you can make sure that the money you have today can work for your dreams for tomorrow.

[i] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/student-loan-debt-i-had-a-panic-attack-millennials-struggle-under-the-burden-of-student-loan-debt/

[ii] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenparis/2019/03/31/student-loan-debt-still-impacting-millennial-homebuyers/#6a8ff1073e78

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional.

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
August 4, 2020

Recently, I came across two competing headlines: “Dow Dropped Because the Wheels are Coming Off” and “The Dow is Up Because there are Flashes of Optimism.” On any given day, financial markets swing—one-day values are up and the next they are down. Trying to figure out how to build your wealth by focusing on market ups and downs can be overwhelming. I choose to champion an altogether different approach—behavioral finance. I believe the key to long-lasting financial independence lies in individual behavior inasmuch as it does the markets or various investment tools. Knowing that success lies within you – your choices, your responses to the market, and your long-term habits over time – rather than in the whims of the market, keeps you on the road to financial freedom.

Dangers to your wealth aren’t so much the downturns in the market as they are your own biases and emotions. Behavioral finance requires discipline and rational thought processes which can present challenges for many investors. We may feel obligated to put our kids through colleges we really can’t afford. Keeping up with the Joneses can deplete our savings or prompt us to invest in things that aren’t aligned with our long-term financial plan. And, in times of stress or change, we may be tempted to react by pulling our money out of the market or by doubling down on an investment. Such actions might play out well in our heads but disastrously so in real life. Ultimately, behavioral finance shows us that individuals carry much of the responsibility for their own financial success.

When you assume this responsibility, it becomes clear that you also gain control of your financial future. You have the ability to build wealth and establish a sense of security without worrying about the market. After all, it is the plan and the decisions you make (or don’t make) that have the greatest impact on your journey to financial independence. So, you may wonder, how do I embrace this concept of behavioral finance? First, you have to do some analysis – predominantly on yourself. What kind of spender/saver are you? Is your money going towards your goals and values? Are there steps you should take to limit habits that lead to unhelpful emotional responses? Besides self-reflection, you will need to create a financial plan. Whenever you are tempted to pursue a course of action, pause, and make sure it is in line with your plan’s goals. If it’s not, you must weigh the risks against the rewards. For those situations that require deeper insight, another great tool is a trusted financial advisor. Their expertise and guidance will be an invaluable resource as you strive to build wealth and turn your dreams into reality.

You have a multitude of tools at your disposal once you realize that financial independence is yours to create. It will take work, discipline, and time, but with that comes agency and autonomy. Start planning now so you can start making the decisions and exhibiting the behaviors that will set you up for a prosperous future.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

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