The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
February 25, 2019

Coming from sunny southern California, there’s nothing quite as nice as an aimless, leisurely drive down the coast. As delightful as that is, it’s not a metaphor for life. Life is complicated and moves fast. It’s easy to get sidetracked. That’s why when it comes to any of your goals, especially financial independence, a clear vision of what you’re working towards and a developed idea of the best way to get there will keep you in route to your goal. Many folks have a general idea of where they want to go. They want to be fiscally responsible, perhaps investing in a home and saving for retirement while still prepared for the financially unexpected. However, 1 in 3 Americans have less than $5,000 saved for retirement and only 16 percent of those surveyed had more than 15 percent of their income saved. We know that most people have good intentions. So why do their actions take them so far away from their goals?

It all comes down to that lack of a map – not having a well-defined goal and detailed route to get there. Yes, it’s good to know that you want to be fiscally responsible, but if you don’t have a detailed definition of what that means, how do you know when you’ve achieved it? What are you saving for? How much do you need to save for retirement and how much do you need in your emergency fund? What other financial goals do you have, and which ones take priority? Lacking those details may make it easier to get distracted by impulse purchases or detoured by a financial commitment that might not be the best for your budget or your long-term financial goals.

Once you have the destination, then you need to determine the most direct route to get there. Do you have a distinct budget for all your needs and your goals? Are you going to have a monthly amount deducted from your account to your savings goals? Have you considered the influences that work against your goals and what you might do to counter them? Having a distinct plan doesn’t mean that everything is settled. Circumstances may arise that distract or reprioritize your goals. Having a definitive plan, though, can help you recalibrate your course and prevent you from being shifted away from your goals long-term.

The road to your financial independence is oftentimes anything but direct. Between relationships, families, career, health and everything in between, it’s easy to lose sight of your goals. Yet, by thinking things through and creating a detailed plan, we can stay on course. Despite every fork in the road, every decision that tempts us away from our goals, we are able to remember what we’re saving for and the right steps we put in place to get there, which makes it easier to stay on course to our financial independence.

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/1-in-3-americans-have-less-than-5000-dollars-saved-for-retirement.html
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/bankrate-65-percent-of-americans-save-little-or-nothing.html
By
Darcy Borella, CFP®
February 1, 2018

If you're one of the millions of Americans who received, or are expecting to receive, a tax refund, you are probably trying to decide how to spend it. The average refund this year is around $3,000, a nice chunk of change to throw at one of your goals. Rather than impulse buying that new Apple iWatch or splurging at Sephora, make the best use of this windfall by putting it towards improving your financial situation.

Build Up An Emergency Fund

Some very good friends of mine woke up recently to find that their downstairs had flooded from a burst pipe on the second level. They had to rip up their hard wood floors, replace furniture, and even replace some of the walls. Luckily, their bedroom and their child's nursery was spared, but THIS type of unexpected event is exactly why you need an emergency fund. If they didn't have cash readily available in a savings account, they might have been tempted to put charges for repairs and replacements on a high-interest credit card. Depending on your situation, you should ideally have 3-6 months of regular expenses in the bank. Use your tax refund to start, or top off, your rainy day fund.

Pay Off Debt

The power of compounding interest can work in your favor when investing, but it can also cause debt to grow faster than you might think. Credit card companies apply their interest fees to the amount that you owe initially. But every month (and sometimes every DAY!) after that, the compounding interest will apply to the principal, as well as the previous month's interest. If you want to apply the snowball method, apply your refund to the smallest account you can close out. Alternatively, you can use the “Avalanche” method, and put your refund towards the card with the highest interest rate. Paying off the smallest account might feel good, but if you have double digit interest accruing on a card, get that debt paid off as fast as you can. Take the windfall from your refund and put it towards cleaning up your personal balance sheet.

Fund an Individual Retirement Account

IRAs are one of the greatest savings vehicles you can have for retirement. These vehicles allow you to invest in the market outside of any employer-sponsored plans (like a 401K) with tax-free growth (no capital gains!) until retirement. There are two types of IRAs that are available to the general public: Roth IRAs and Traditional IRAs. With a Roth, you contribute post-tax dollars and don't have to pay income taxes on any distributions in retirement. There is, however, a phase-out limit based on income. With a traditional IRA, you do pay income taxes on distributions in retirement. However, contributions made could be tax-deductible for that tax year (contributions made from January 1st of the current year through April 15th of the following year). As of now, individuals can contribute up to $5,500 per year ($6,500 if you’re age 50 or older), or your taxable compensation for the year, if your compensation was less than this dollar limit.

Monetize Other Financial Goals

Planning to take a big family vacation to Disneyland in 5 years? Dreaming of owning a house but need to build up a sizable down payment? Wondering how you are going to pay for your pre-teen's college tuition? If you have any intermediate goals (prior to retirement), consider opening a brokerage account to help your money grow more efficiently. Statistically, the stock market has more up years than down, and historically, has recovered from those down years relatively quickly. If you have time on you side, consider monetizing these goals by participating in the market at a level that is in line with your risk tolerance.

But If You Must, Splurge…A Little

If you just can't help it, take a small percentage of your refund to treat yourself. Whether it's a nice dinner, a manicure, or checking out a movie with your spouse, take a minute to blow off some steam. Keep this amount small though as the path to wealth is paved with good decisions. Start making good habits today to delay gratification and secure a financial safety net in your future.

Get Started on Your Financial Life Plan Today