The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
March 22, 2018

Due to the nature of my profession, I am solicited for financial advice in all aspects of my life from all types of people. Similar to a doctor who gets asked about symptoms at birthday parties, people often ask for my opinion or input on financial matters, particularly investing. As most doctors will tell you, it’s hard to give advice when you don’t know the particulars.

However, if someone is really eager or serious for guidance on investing, I will suggest that they do their homework. The information they’re looking for isn’t found on the stock exchange or the Finance section of a newspaper.  Most times, the information you need to start with is found a lot closer than you would expect.

The first thing to take into account are your financial goals. As I’ve mentioned before, being aware of your financial “why” can highlight good habits, change inefficient patterns, refocus priorities and ultimately develop a plan to help you achieve your financial freedom. Therefore, you need to be specific. Do you want to retire in 30 years? Perhaps you want to buy a house in five years or start a business in two. In these scenarios, your goals act as targets, and with the help of a good financial planner, you can develop an action plan with measurable steps to incrementally achieve them.

Another thing to be aware of is your risk tolerance. This isn’t a measure of whether you like to bungee cord jump or skydive. Rather, this is an indication of how much volatility in your investments you are comfortable with. This is something that needs to be determined for the individual as well as the household. Risk tolerance is a very personal indicator, and there are times that couples don’t see eye to eye. When new clients come in, we have them complete a risk tolerance questionnaire to not only to see how individuals may or may not be working together but to also figure out the most effective plan to achieve their goals. The last thing we want you to do is tackle investments that won’t achieve your goals in a timely.

As you can tell, these items are all very personal. What you’re saving for, how long and hard you’re willing to work towards your goals, and what your income and lifestyle needs are, both current and future, will all be factors in planning how to invest. I bring this up because so many clients come in referring to the advice their friends, neighbors or coworker gave them. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m all for educating one’s self. Let’s discuss your options. But please don’t think that investing in what your child’s Little League coach is investing in is automatically the best option for you.

Let me put it another way. I’ve been athletic all of my life, playing high school and college baseball and an avid golfer. Knowing that, I’m not going to start a new exercise regime with a leisurely walk around the block or bench pressing 400 pounds. It’s not that I don’t believe these fitness goals are valid – they’re just not valid for me. The same idea can be applied to your finances. If any of the factors I’ve mentioned are not aligned, you may discover that the grass isn’t always greener on the other side, and that you need to be wary of the barb wire in between.

I know it sounds odd, that investing should be more complicated. But the truth is knowing your financial self is much important than knowing the stock market when you first start investing.

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
August 13, 2018

Money can be a complex thing. No, I’m not necessarily talking about the stock market or the emergence of cryptocurrencies. I’m talking about how every financial decision you make affects all the others. It sounds like a simple enough theory, but when it comes time to putting it into action, it’s often difficult to see through.

I see many clients who come in clearly stating their goals: they want to retire, they want to start their own business or pay for the children’s college education. They want to be financially independent. Yet, when we look at what they’re doing with their finances, we find that their actions may be working against their goals. That daily Starbucks habit has a different cost when you calculate how much you’ve spent in a given month that could have been used towards other expenses. For those who are constantly leasing new vehicles, those payments that never end take on a different perspective when you consider how they could have been applied to a down payment for a house.

We see it now with millennials struggling under immense student loan debt. While much of their income is funneled towards basic needs and paying down debt, little is left for necessary things like amassing an emergency fund and saving for retirement, let alone other milestones like purchasing a home. Putting off funding these other items can have a serious detrimental effect down the road. Furthermore, while millennials have grown to be the largest generations purchasing homes1, this major decision has prompted additional complications like borrowing from retirement to afford a down payment or underestimating ongoing maintenance cost. In fact, based on a survey by Bank of the West, 68 percent of millennial homeowners now have regrets about buying their home2 because every decision made truly impacted everything else.

Things can get especially tricky when decisions are being made by more than one person. Couples can have household goals, but if they’re not united in working towards them, these goals can often get sidelined. Perhaps they’re trying to save for a house, but one of them isn’t sticking to their plan. Maybe they’ve been diligently saving for retirement when one wants to take a major withdrawal to start their own business. Sometimes it can be as simple as not even bothering to discuss the household’s financial goals. Very often, if you’re not working together, you’re working against one another.

Please understand, I’m all for enjoying your hard-earned money. Sometimes, though, difficult choices have to be made. Perhaps it’s deciding to put off that trip with friends to pay off your credit card, or eating out less to build up your emergency fund. I remember being in that predicament when my family first moved into our home – we lived without furniture in two of the rooms! You see, the key to your personal financial success isn’t typically making more money. It’s really about being aware of your financial behavior and of how your daily financial decisions impact your long-term fiscal future.

1. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/42748-millennials-lead-all-other-generations-in-buying-homes

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/most-millennials-regret-buying-home.html

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