The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
David McDonough
May 31, 2019

It’s graduation season, and there’s an excitement in the air about starting a new chapter. Mixed in with this excitement is an element of stress to make the right decisions: decisions on how things should be done, when they should be done and where they should be done. All these decisions are common, but they often distract from the purpose of what comes after high school.

We need to remember that higher education has a purpose. It’s more than an experience. The purpose of a college degree is employment. It is an investment, and as with any other investment, you should be calculating the return on that investment.  Spending $100,000 for a degree that secures a job with an annual salary of $40,000 is not the best rate of return.

There are plenty of creative ways to get a great college education without breaking the bank. Parents can start a 529 plan, the earlier the better, to help cover costs. Students can begin their higher education at a community college or secure college credit via Advance Placement (AP) exams. Additionally, students need to be sure that the field they are spending their time and energy on is going to reciprocate by providing solid career opportunities.

Making the wrong decision is not simply an unwise financial move. It can have lasting implications. Recent figures show that outstanding student loan debt has reached $1.5 trillion[i]. Our younger generation is not only struggling under this debt, they are also pushing off other personal and financial milestones, such as purchasing a house[ii], getting married or starting a family[iii]. These decisions can have long-lasting and far-reaching consequences.

Lastly, let’s not forget the countless parents who put their path to financial independence on hold to financially assist their struggling children. While wanting to financially help your loved ones is admirable, it helps no one to offer assistance at the expense of your own security. Just like when traveling by airplane, you need to put your own oxygen mask on and secure your safety first before aiding others. There are no scholarships for retirement, and you won’t have a financial safety net for the future if you don’t work towards creating it now.

College is truly an exciting time. Our young adults are learning who they are, where they want to go and how they intend to get there. At the same time, we cannot forget that college is a fleeting moment, one that is meant to arm the student with the tools needed to create a brighter and more successful future. Be sure to chat with your students to ensure that this experience does just that, rather than straddle these students with debt and stress.

[i] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/student-debt-just-hit-15-trillion-2018-05-08

[ii] https://www.businessinsider.com/student-debt-preventing-the-us-from-having-normal-housing-market-2019-5

[iii] https://www.bankrate.com/loans/student-loans/student-loans-survey-february-2019/

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Prior to investing in a 529 Plan investors should consider whether the investor's or designated beneficiary's home state offers any state tax or other state benefits such as financial aid, scholarship funds, and protection from creditors that are only available for investments in such state's qualified tuition program. Withdrawals used for qualified expenses are federally tax free. Tax treatment at the state level may vary. Please consult with your tax advisor before investing.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Prior to investing in a 529 Plan investors should consider whether the investor's or designated beneficiary's home state offers any state tax or other state benefits such as financial aid, scholarship funds, and protection from creditors that are only available for investments in such state's qualified tuition program. Withdrawals used for qualified expenses are federally tax free. Tax treatment at the state level may vary. Please consult with your tax advisor before investing.

Disclaimer:

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Investing in mutual funds involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

The principal value of a target fund is not guaranteed at any time, including at the target date. The target date is the approximate date when investors plan to start withdrawing their money.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

By Trilogy Financial
June 14, 2022

When the market drops, some investors lose perspective that downtrends and uptrends are part of the investing cycle. When stock prices break lower, it's a good time to review common terms that are used to describe the market's downward momentum.

Pullbacks

A pullback represents the mildest form of a selloff in the markets. You might hear an investor or trader refer to a dip of 5-10% after a peak as a “pullback.”1

Corrections

The next degree in severity is a “correction.” If a market or markets retreat 10% to 20% after a peak, you’re in correction territory. At this point, you’re likely on guard for the next tier.2

Bear Market

In a Bear Market, the decline is 20% or more since the last peak.2

 

All of this is normal

“Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are a part of the investing cycle.”

When stock prices are trending lower, some investors can second-guess their risk tolerance. But periods of market volatility can be the worst times to consider portfolio decisions.

Pullbacks and corrections are relatively common and represent something that any investor may see from time to time in their financial life, often several times over the course of a decade. Bear markets are much rarer. In fact, between April 1947 and September 2021, there have only been 14 bear markets.3

A retirement strategy formed with a financial professional has market volatility factored in. As you continue your relationship with that professional, they will also be at your side to make any adjustments and help you make any necessary decisions along the way. Their goal is to help you pursue your goals.

 

 

 

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  1. Investopedia.com, August 23, 2021
  2. Forbes.com, September 20, 2021
  3. Investopedia.com, October 29, 2021

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