The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
August 26, 2018

There is one area of planning that gets glossed over, even by the many responsible people: long-term care planning. For so many, it is difficult to plan for something that seems so far removed from their current existence. Many also assume that their current health insurance or Medicare will cover most expenses associated with long-term care. Unfortunately, these mistakes leave them ill-prepared for the expensive reality.

As the US government estimates 70% of individuals who are currently 65 “will require some form of long-term care”.1 Therefore, this is more of an eventuality for most folks than it is a possibility. When an individual’s health starts to decline, hopefully, multiple levels have been put into place. Not only should you be concerned with who will care for you physically, you must all consider who will care for your finances.

Physical Care –The costs for long-term care can be surprising for many, with the average 65-year-old paying approximately $138,000 over his/her lifetime.2 As mentioned earlier, Medicare or private health insurance rarely covers all types and expenses of long-term care. Medicaid assistance varies by state and requires that an individual “must spend down his or her assets and meet other criteria.”3 Additionally, It is important to talk with your loved ones about long-term care options, not only about what one can afford but equally as important, what one prefers.

Ultimately, many end up paying for long-term care from their own finances – 50% according to the Bipartisan Policy Center report.4 To protect your finances and the finances of your loved ones, it is vital to prepare for these possible scenarios. There are many long-term care insurance policies that can provide you the assistance your particular situation needs. The premiums for these policies are much more affordable the younger you are. While some of these policies can get a bit confusing, a financial planner can easily go over these policies and help you determine which one would be best for your particular situation.

Financial Care – The key to financially protecting a client in declining physical or mental health lies in teamwork. The team, which consists of their financial team members (financial planner, tax professional or estate planning attorney), delegates and medical professionals. While we all continue to focus on our own particular role and duties, maintaining a professional relationship does give us the opportunity to share any concerning or unusual behavior concerning our client, as well as execute things quickly and as close to the client’s wishes as possible. Equally important is a Durable Power of Attorney (DPA), which legally allows an individual to designate someone to make financial and medical decisions on their behalf should they become mentally incapable to do so. Having these safeguards in place can save on time and hassle should health matters deteriorate and allow your delegate to focus on more pressing issues.

When so many of us pride our independence and self-reliance, declining health issues can be downright scary. I understand this well as I do my best to set my clients up for financial independence, so they can create the life they want to live. When circumstances step in and disrupt your life, it’s vital to know that you have people to rely on and safeguards to protect you.

1. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

2. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

3. https://www.consumerreports.org/elder-care/elder-care-and-assisted-living-who-will-care-for-you/

4. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

By Trilogy Financial
March 6, 2018

Recent market volatility and nervousness of investors seems to make this a good time to re-evaluate our current time frames and allocations for our investment accounts. One of the most important reasons is that our time frames and risk tolerance often clarify and determine the type of investment and allocation we should consider for our money.

Let’s agree that we might feel the market is efficient over a long period of time. With this kind of long-term perspective, should this recent volatility send us into a panic when evaluating our 401k and Roth IRA; investment accounts that possibly will be utilized 10, 15, or even 25 years from now? I anticipate you can come to my same conclusion…no. Let’s take this idea one step further. I would argue that panic should not be the response, but an excitement to save more, invest more, and watch our money possibly work more efficiently for us than if it was sitting in a safe, under the mattress, or at the bank. Market volatility and “correction” is healthy for long-term investors.

Now, I just alluded to two long-term retirement accounts. What if we have a 12-month goal to renovate the kitchen? That is a different time frame. That would result in a different level of risk. In fact, oftentimes, if the assets invested are to be purposed for a capital expense within the next twelve to twenty-four months, I then recommend holding on to cash and savings. The risks and costs of investing might be too high for our level of comfort for that short of a time-frame. Then, when we know the basement is set to be finished, the birth of a child is coming, or a rental property down payment are in sight, then we may want additional funds in the bank outside of our traditional three to six months of savings, especially if the time frame is tight.

And finally, what if we have additional cash that we don’t have a specific priority in mind for, and we have a comfortable amount in our bank savings, and we don’t want to wrap additional money into a retirement account and then not have access to it until after age 59 ½? This idea, this solution, is often unknown to investors. We are taught that we need to save into retirement accounts and make sure we have three to six months of emergency savings…but that’s not all we should consider. A non-retirement investment account helps us be more efficient with our excess cash or monthly cash flow, yet these invested assets are still accessible within 2-7 business days. In the 5, 10, or even 20 years until retirement, do we anticipate having a few non-retirement priorities? I’m confident the answer is “yes” for just about everyone. Or, maybe we run into a few unexpected things, too. Let me name a few examples…anniversary trip, home remodel, broken furnace, family vacation, new car, next down payment, adoption, or caring for our parents. Until we have a time frame, let’s believe in the market, invest our money in an efficient, cost-efficient, diversified portfolio, set to our level of risk and based on our anticipated time frame.

When a priority shows up, or even a BIG emergency, if we have been saving all along, it might make us better prepared. Just like a 401k, we can establish this type of investment account, determine a monthly contribution amount, and we can save and invest on a monthly basis. This could be incredibly impactful, because if we stick to the alternative of trying to over-save into our bank savings account, what might happen? Just prior to the end of the month, we might be too tempted to “slide to transfer” our “extra” funds right back into our bank checking. By establishing this additional, more efficient savings vehicle, funds that are earmarked for a future priority, outside of two years from now, will help us to be better prepared when that priority shows up, AND, hopefully having a stronger earning potential than what is available as interest at the bank.

This last example addresses an intermediate level of planning that tends to get lost in the emergency savings/retirement planning conversation. One consideration, please be aware that since these funds may not be in tax-deferred type of accounts, there may be various kinds of taxation on the growth and trading of holdings within these accounts. You would need to discuss taxation with your tax professional. Short- and long-term capital gains taxes are to be considered. But again, one of the biggest benefits of this type of account is that these funds tend to be more readily accessible. The flexibility of these types of non-retirement investment accounts are considered to be incredibly instrumental.

To summarize, if you are funding your 401k, and you have an adequate level of savings in the bank, and still have additional cash flow that could be used for future priorities, then I encourage you to establish an individual or joint non-retirement investment account for those exact goals. But first, please schedule time to meet with a Certified Financial Planner to help craft a strategy for your financial plan. He/she will help you better understand your time frames, your priorities, which will then determine your allocation, your level of risk, your investment, and the titling of the accounts.

So, despite the market volatility, the encouragement is the same: spend less, save more, start today.

Get Started on Your Financial Life Plan Today