High Inflation…It’s a Good Thing

Each of our lives is comprised of elements that create a story. Our financial lives are no different – the elements include our bank accounts, retirement accounts, mortgages, car loans, student loans, investment accounts, stock options at work, life insurance policies, credit cards, etc. When most people think of their financial life, they think of these elements but have trouble contextualizing them in their overall financial story. All of these elements are simply tools that either help or deter us from our goals. Before analyzing the tools, it’s important to understand why you’re using them and the goals and priorities that create the story which requires them.

One way people analyze these tools is by researching investment returns. Before delving into the world of returns, think about why you are investing in the first place. Your investments should reflect your overall financial priorities. If the risk tolerance in your investment appropriately reflects the time-frame you plan on needing the money, then worrying about investment returns day-to-day can be more of a headache than it’s worth. For example, if you are 35 years old saving for retirement at 60 – you should be aggressively invested if you’re comfortable with that. Because you have 25 years before you plan on using the money, short-term fluctuations in the market shouldn’t really concern you. In fact, if the market does go down and you are still contributing to your retirement, you are technically “buying on sale” – getting more shares for the same dollar value. Contributing to your retirement in up-and-down markets is called “dollar-cost-averaging” – meaning you average out the cost/share of an investment by contributing consistently rather than trying to time the market and invest when you are “buying low”.

There are many benchmarks in the financial industry to compare your investments to and track performance. Some examples include the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for large-cap stocks, the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index for bonds, and the MSCI Index for international investments. It’s important to understand how your investments are doing in relation to the overall market – it keeps you abreast of what you are investing in and prompts questions you may not ask otherwise – such as what fees you are paying, who’s helping you decide what to invest in, and how much risk you’re taking on compared to the benchmarks you’re using as a comparison. However, the benchmark you should habitually pay more attention to than any other is your particular goal with each investment and your overall goals in terms of building wealth.

Focusing on investment returns only paints half of the picture when tracking progress because it is completely out of your control. If you can confidently say your investments are well diversified and invested according to a risk-tolerance you are comfortable with, there is a much more important benchmark to track than returns. Instead of relying on your investment vehicles to do all the heavy-lifting, you should use your investment behavior as the ultimate indicator to determine if you’re making progress or need more work. What are the financial goals you have in mind? To retire by 55? To save for a second down payment on a house? To pay off your mortgage? Help your children pay for their college tuition? Protect your investments and family in case of a long-term illness? Reduce credit cards and student loans? Build emergency savings?

When you are focused on goal-based financial planning, there are a lot of benchmarks to concern yourself with other than the hype involved in investment performance. Are you saving more this year than you were last year? Did you increase your savings rate when you received a raise? Does the money you are spending appropriately reflect the values and priorities that are most important to you? Are you using extra income to increase investments and decrease liabilities? By focusing on why you’re investing in the first place and the priorities that matter to you, it’s easier to ask the right questions and monitor progress. Once you know what you’re shooting for, a Decision Coach can help you understand the appropriate tools to get there.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Each index is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

When it comes to choosing your 401(k) lineup, it’s easy to become overwhelmed by your options. It’s likely why more than 70% of 401(k) plans include at least one target-date fund. Also known as lifecycle or age-based funds, target date funds were created to simplify the investment choices for 401(k) plan contributors. Depending on your company’s 401(k) plan, they may be named something like Target Date Fund 2050, meaning you anticipate retiring around 2050. Target-date funds give employees the option of choosing one fund that diversifies their investments among stocks, bonds, and cash (the allocation) throughout their working life.

Considered a “set-it-and-forget-it” investment option, some investors choose target date funds as a default so they can avoid having to rebalance and update their portfolio allocations over time. The theory is that younger participants, having more years until retirement, can take higher risks in order to achieve higher expected returns. Since the funds focus on a selected time frame or target date (usually retirement), its asset allocation mix becomes more conservative as that date approaches. The percentage of stocks is reduced, and the percentage of bonds and cash is increased.

While target date funds may help encourage employees to participate in their company’s 401(k), there are a few misconceptions about how they work, and it’s important to understand these considerations before choosing your 401(k)’s investment lineup.

Target Date Funds Can Significantly Vary

Many investors get caught up in the year attached to a target date fund. If they change jobs and contribute to a different 401(k) plan, they may assume the target date fund is the same as their previous plan. Or, they believe that a 2050 target date fund is nearly identical to a 2055 target date fund.

However, target date funds with the same target date can significantly vary in their portfolio lineup. Fund families typically have their own unique approach with their target date funds, meaning a John Hancock target date fund likely won’t offer the same ratio of stocks and bonds as a Fidelity plan.

Take a look at this example from InvestorJunkie:

The percent of equities at age 65 significantly differs between target date families. When each of the target date funds has its own fee structure, mix of assets, and risk tolerance, it’s nearly impossible to measure performance between these funds.

Target date funds don’t just vary by their lineup. They can also have different fees.

As we can see in the chart above, the expense ratios considerably vary based on the target date and the target date family. Fidelity Freedom is more than 0.5% higher than Vanguard, which can take a toll on your portfolio when you’re investing for several decades.

Should I Invest in a Target Date Fund?

Like Though not a panacea, target date funds offer a reasonable alternative to the often confusing world of too many investment choices. Ultimately, there isn’t a single recommendation one can make for everyone. Each person has unique needs and circumstances, and they need to be taken into consideration when selecting their 401(k) lineup.

Before choosing a target date fund, there are a few factors to consider.

What do you want the fund to do for you?

Do you want a fund that is at its most conservative allocation when you retire or a fund that will take you through retirement? A target date fund’s allocation changes based on a set timeframe. If your fund is designed to help you get TO retirement, the amount invested in stocks will substantially decrease as you near your retirement date.

A fund that’s designed to get you THROUGH retirement changes allocations based on your life expectancy. These funds will have a greater amount in stocks at retirement than the to funds and thus be higher risk. Knowing which type of fund you own is critical to your ability to assessing its riskiness, along with its long-term expected returns if you are able to stay the course with it through troubled times.

What are the funds’ target allocations?

Whether it’s a to or a through plan, what are its target allocations? How are decisions about allocation made and do those choices complement your needs?

What's your risk tolerance?

Target-date funds can be more aggressive or more conservative than expected. During the 2008 financial crisis, many investors with 2010 target-date funds suffered severe losses because they didn’t realize their portfolio was invested in more stocks than they thought. Would you have stayed invested if the fund had struggled in 2008? If not, perhaps you should look at a more conservative option.

What are the fees?

Target-date funds can often cost more than other funds because they’re known for their long horizons, and their fees will vary by target date family and target date. If you are more cost conscious, you may prefer to invest in index funds.

Choosing Your 401(K) Lineup.

When there are a plethora of investment options from which to choose, take the time to understand what you want from them and find a fund that meets your needs. If you would like to discuss target date funds or other 401(k) options. I encourage you to reach out to me. Call my office at (949) 221-8105 x 2128, or email me at michael.loo@lpl.com.

The target date is the approximate date when investors plan to start withdrawing their money.

The principal value of a target fund is not guaranteed at any time, including at the target date.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss