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The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Mike Loo, MBA
March 1, 2018

Over the course of working with so many individuals and families, I’ve found that many people think financial planning, investing, and retirement planning are a sprint to the finish line. While on paper, maxing out your 401(k) each year and building an all-stock portfolio for maximum growth potential seems like a good plan, fast and big investing can actually slow down your progress to your goals. Let’s look at why.

The Dangers of Little Liquidity I always enjoy working with enthusiastic young couples who want to do everything in their power to reach their desired retirement. However, in the process of focusing on their long-term retirement goals, they neglect their short-term needs.

For many of my clients in their 20s and 30s, I may recommend contributing enough to their 401(k) to get the employer match, if one is offered, and contribute some of their paycheck to build an emergency fund and savings. This can help them avoid focusing so much on their long-term retirement goals that they neglect their short-term goals, from buying a house to paying off student loan debt. I generally recommend that my clients build a reserve fund that can cover three to six months’ worth of living expenses.

Dipping Your Toes In Versus Diving Head First

I said it earlier but I’ll say it again; investing and financial planning is a marathon, not a sprint. I’d much rather be the tortoise—slow yet steady and consistent—than the hare—fast yet unpredictable—when it comes to my investing strategy.

One of the more underrated strategies for financial security is making consistent and periodic contributions to your portfolio over a long period of time. As I mentioned earlier, younger individuals and families may not have the income yet to max out their 401(k), but they can make consistent contributions and increase them over time as their income increases. Like the tortoise, saving for retirement and other long-term goals is all about perseverance and consistency, even if it is at a slower pace.

It’s easy to let emotions get in the way, and many investors fall prey to the newest investment strategy that claims a higher return on investment. But the fact of the matter is, there is no controlling or predicting the market. I tell my clients that instead of focusing on what they can’t control, it’s helpful to focus on what they can control: the capital they invest.

Whether the markets are high or low, consistent contributions can have a powerful long-term effect. Additionally, maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and rebalancing if needed each year can help ensure your portfolio matches the appropriate level of risk you’re willing to take. Adhering to this motto and disciplined strategy can help you avoid the common trap investors fall into: buying high and selling low, and chasing high returns.

The Risks of Aggressive Investing

Too often, financial advisors tell young individuals in their 20s and 30s to keep close to 100% of their portfolio in stocks. The theory is that young investors have decades to ride out volatility and make up for any lost returns. While this may work for some individuals, I’ve had a number of younger clients who don’t feel comfortable taking such risks, even if they have decades to try to make up for losses.

Investing entirely in stocks isn’t necessarily the way to go, even if it makes sense on paper. It’s nearly impossible to entirely remove emotions from investing. Too often, I’ve seen investors give up when their portfolio takes a big hit. They lose motivation to keep investing, and they struggle to keep their eyes on the finish line of their long-term goals.

Incorporating investments, like bonds, that offer lower returns and lower risk, may help you feel more confident in your portfolio and avoid the rollercoaster of emotions if your portfolio takes a hit during a downturn.

Next Steps

Like the tortoise and the hare, fast investments don’t mean you’ll reach the finish line first. While it can be difficult, it’s important to tune out the noise of the media and focus instead on what strategies make sense for your unique situation, risk tolerance, and short and long-term goals. While not as exciting, I believe slow and steady can win the race, and without as many speed bumps along the way.

As an independent financial advisor, my mission is to make a meaningful impact on the lives of my clients and the people they love. I help families make informed decisions with their money and pursue a strong financial future. If you’re interested in learning more about balancing your short and long-term goals, I encourage you to reach out to me. Call my office at (949) 221-8105 x 2128, or email me at michael.loo@lpl.com.

By
Mark Nicolet, CFP®, MBA, ABFP™
March 6, 2018

Recent market volatility and nervousness of investors seems to make this a good time to re-evaluate our current time frames and allocations for our investment accounts. One of the most important reasons is that our time frames and risk tolerance often clarify and determine the type of investment and allocation we should consider for our money.

Let’s agree that we might feel the market is efficient over a long period of time. With this kind of long-term perspective, should this recent volatility send us into a panic when evaluating our 401k and Roth IRA; investment accounts that possibly will be utilized 10, 15, or even 25 years from now? I anticipate you can come to my same conclusion…no. Let’s take this idea one step further. I would argue that panic should not be the response, but an excitement to save more, invest more, and watch our money possibly work more efficiently for us than if it was sitting in a safe, under the mattress, or at the bank. Market volatility and “correction” is healthy for long-term investors.

Now, I just alluded to two long-term retirement accounts. What if we have a 12-month goal to renovate the kitchen? That is a different time frame. That would result in a different level of risk. In fact, oftentimes, if the assets invested are to be purposed for a capital expense within the next twelve to twenty-four months, I then recommend holding on to cash and savings. The risks and costs of investing might be too high for our level of comfort for that short of a time-frame. Then, when we know the basement is set to be finished, the birth of a child is coming, or a rental property down payment are in sight, then we may want additional funds in the bank outside of our traditional three to six months of savings, especially if the time frame is tight.

And finally, what if we have additional cash that we don’t have a specific priority in mind for, and we have a comfortable amount in our bank savings, and we don’t want to wrap additional money into a retirement account and then not have access to it until after age 59 ½? This idea, this solution, is often unknown to investors. We are taught that we need to save into retirement accounts and make sure we have three to six months of emergency savings…but that’s not all we should consider. A non-retirement investment account helps us be more efficient with our excess cash or monthly cash flow, yet these invested assets are still accessible within 2-7 business days. In the 5, 10, or even 20 years until retirement, do we anticipate having a few non-retirement priorities? I’m confident the answer is “yes” for just about everyone. Or, maybe we run into a few unexpected things, too. Let me name a few examples…anniversary trip, home remodel, broken furnace, family vacation, new car, next down payment, adoption, or caring for our parents. Until we have a time frame, let’s believe in the market, invest our money in an efficient, cost-efficient, diversified portfolio, set to our level of risk and based on our anticipated time frame.

When a priority shows up, or even a BIG emergency, if we have been saving all along, it might make us better prepared. Just like a 401k, we can establish this type of investment account, determine a monthly contribution amount, and we can save and invest on a monthly basis. This could be incredibly impactful, because if we stick to the alternative of trying to over-save into our bank savings account, what might happen? Just prior to the end of the month, we might be too tempted to “slide to transfer” our “extra” funds right back into our bank checking. By establishing this additional, more efficient savings vehicle, funds that are earmarked for a future priority, outside of two years from now, will help us to be better prepared when that priority shows up, AND, hopefully having a stronger earning potential than what is available as interest at the bank.

This last example addresses an intermediate level of planning that tends to get lost in the emergency savings/retirement planning conversation. One consideration, please be aware that since these funds may not be in tax-deferred type of accounts, there may be various kinds of taxation on the growth and trading of holdings within these accounts. You would need to discuss taxation with your tax professional. Short- and long-term capital gains taxes are to be considered. But again, one of the biggest benefits of this type of account is that these funds tend to be more readily accessible. The flexibility of these types of non-retirement investment accounts are considered to be incredibly instrumental.

To summarize, if you are funding your 401k, and you have an adequate level of savings in the bank, and still have additional cash flow that could be used for future priorities, then I encourage you to establish an individual or joint non-retirement investment account for those exact goals. But first, please schedule time to meet with a Certified Financial Planner to help craft a strategy for your financial plan. He/she will help you better understand your time frames, your priorities, which will then determine your allocation, your level of risk, your investment, and the titling of the accounts.

So, despite the market volatility, the encouragement is the same: spend less, save more, start today.

Get Started on Your Financial Life Plan Today